Some clarifications I must make at the beginning: I have found it particularly hard to start my writing on this war since I live in China and barely know any Russian or Ukrainian people. I don’t want this post to be anything close to an official article but rather a personal ramble. If you, my readers, find any part of this post irritating, I will sincerely apologize. In this post, I have set my job to ask questions, and hopefully, one can reflect his thoughts provoked by those questions by trying to answer them.
Since the event’s start, I have been constantly asked about Chinese people’s general opinions by both foreigners and local acquaintances. Personally, the answer is unreachable unless the question is limited to a certain period and a certain group, given the changing information on media and differences in personal interests. Yes, Chinese social media’s comment section is mostly covered by supportive arguments for Russia’s current action. However, some also believe and has publicly claimed that Putin has made a wrong decision. Most importantly, China’s official news conference is working hard on staying neutral.
A lot of people in western countries proclaims that they stand for Ukraine. What does that mean? Is there a precise opposite of that statement? If there is, does it imply that anyone who chooses not to stand for THE Ukraine side stands for the opposite? When a question about Chinese public opinions is asked, is there a purpose for asking it? (Also remember the fact that Chinese people are also asking me the same question. Are we even clear with what we stand for?)
What I want to say by listing these concerns is to point out that portraying the scenario in the briefest does not help build any rational understanding.
Yet, I’d love to shew you the distinction between the majority of opinions on western media and Chinese media (not official ones). Merely using the most basic critical thinking tool — examining assumptions, evidence, logic, and conclusion — we can see many flaws in both of them. I will mention several examples here, and you can find more of them almost everywhere.
The following is quoted from Astral Codex Ten’s article “Ukraine Thoughts And Links”. (Astral Codex Ten is one of the most critical pillars in the rationalist society.)
“Any sane person wants to avoid nuclear war. But this makes it easy to exploit sane people. If Russia said “Please give us the Aleutian Islands, or we will nuke you”, what should the US do? They can threaten mutually assured destruction, but if Russia says “Yes, we have received your threat, we stick to our demand, give us the Aleutians or the nukes start flying”, then what?
No sane person thinks it’s worth risking nuclear war just to protect something as minor as the Aleutian Islands. But then the US gives Russia the Aleutians, and next year they ask for all of Alaska. And even Alaska isn’t really worth risking nuclear war over, so you give it to them, and then the next year…
So people who don’t want to be exploited occasionally set lines in the sand, where they refuse to make trivial concessions even to prevent global apocalypse. This is good, insofar as it prevents them from being exploited, but bad, insofar as sometimes it causes global apocalypse. So far the solution everyone has settled on are lots of very finicky rules about which lines you’re allowed to draw and which ones you aren’t.”
The logic is smooth, and the conclusion follows. However, an implicit assumption is partially ignored: this Russia will continue asking for more lands. What’s the purpose for Russia to have more lands? Is the value of Aleutians similar to that of Ukraine? Is Russia so insane that it views war or even nuclear war as the only resort at the very beginning of the accumulation of the events? Given different points in this accumulation, should the western countries hold a constant solution?
As for the Chinese side, the example I want to discuss here is that when western countries gave Ukraine defensive/supportive devices, the large public viewed them as “an evil plan to make the war lasting longer”. In an attempt to be acceptable, I’ll suggest the following: Do you have any evidence to prove that those supports are intentionally provided to extend the war? Did such actions go against international law? Are you holding the international law as your judging criteria, and if not, what is it? If you are a Ukrainian, do you want to have them to protect your country? Last, do you have an initial purpose when arguing about the “evil plan”?
(A quick restatement: you can find plenty of examples like these two I discussed on social media, on which you can do your own logic check.)
Note that neither am I criticizing any side to be entirely wrong nor do I do not understand why people from different cultural and political backgrounds have different opinions. My purpose for stating all above is simply to bring people to see the chains of reasoning in various arguments. I believe such an attitude/ability is what we eagerly need in current times since it is the only possible start for us to support each other.
Back to the very first question. Although I do not dare to summarize Chinese people’s opinions as a whole, I’d love to share the development course of my thoughts.
Before the actual war
1. None should try to warm up the issue
2. None should take war as a possible profit generator (casual relationship with #1)
During the war — now
1. Everyone shall try to stand with the citizens in both countries FIRST before evaluating the situation
2. Pessimistic predictions for the recovery in the economies of Ukraine, Russia, and countries primarily affected by current sanctions.
3. Two possible ways out: Putin finds it hard to sustain the power system in Russia and is thus forced to stop the war so that most of the blame can be shouldered by him as an individual. /OR/ Ukraine loses the war and agrees with most requirements Russia brings up in their negotiation, in which western countries will continue only some of the sanctions so that their vital costs can be deducted.
(As you can see, my mentality is not as stable as a mentality of an outsider of the issue should hold, reasons of which is personal and I would not like to share. My apology :). And if I can only highlight one thing, that will be PEOPLE.)
